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Ind. Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
0 – 0
LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
12/8/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Semi-finalsEstadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ind. Juniors48%
×Draw28%
LDU Portoviejo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.36
LDU Portoviejo
0.88

Ind. Juniors creates 55% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
LDU Portoviejo
0.91

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
LDU Portoviejo
1.29

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

LDU Portoviejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
76%
Ind. Juniors or LDU Portoviejo
72%
Draw or LDU Portoviejo
52%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
23%
LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
74%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
39%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
16%
LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
59%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
22%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
66%
LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.91 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
48%
level
28%
LDU Portoviejo scores more
24%

Ind. Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ind. Juniors 0 – 0 LDU Portoviejo

Ind. Juniors and LDU Portoviejo drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).