Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 136+ matches
Incheon United28%
Jeonbuk Motors45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jeonbuk Motors creates 35% more chances
Season form · 136 home / 154 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Incheon United ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Incheon United at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches
Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Incheon United attack 1.06 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00
Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Incheon United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Jeonbuk Motors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Incheon United host Jeonbuk Motors on Sunday, 12 November 2023 at 05:00. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
K League 1: Incheon United 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors
Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in K League 1 on November 12, 2023.
The match was played at Sungui Arena Park in Incheon.