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Incheon Red Angels W vs Suwon FMC W — WK-League 2026

Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels W
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Suwon FMC W
Suwon FMC W
11/25/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Championship - FinalsNamdong Rugby Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W46%
×Draw25%
Suwon FMC W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon Red Angels W
1.57
Suwon FMC W
1.18

Incheon Red Angels W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 89 away

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W
1.92
Suwon FMC W
1.61

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W
0.75
Suwon FMC W
1.22

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par
Suwon FMC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Suwon FMC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw
71%
Incheon Red Angels W or Suwon FMC W
75%
Draw or Suwon FMC W
54%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
24%
Suwon FMC W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
79%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
46%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
21%
Suwon FMC W 1+ goals
69%
Suwon FMC W 2+ goals
33%
Suwon FMC W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
62%
Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 83 matches

Suwon FMC W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.92 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Suwon FMC W attack 1.61 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more
46%
level
25%
Suwon FMC W scores more
29%

Incheon Red Angels W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Incheon Red Angels W 6–2 Suwon FMC W

Incheon Red Angels W beat Suwon FMC W 6-2 in WK-League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Namdong Rugby Stadium in Incheon.