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Incheon Red Angels W vs Changnyeong W — WK-League 2026

Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels W
Preview
10:00
Changnyeong W
Changnyeong W
10/28/2026WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 27
Big match
66%
Incheon Red Angels W
model favours
66%20%14%

Changnyeong W score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W66%
×Draw20%
Changnyeong W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon Red Angels W
2.06
Changnyeong W
0.83

Incheon Red Angels W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 79 away

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W
1.92
Changnyeong W
0.91

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W
0.75
Changnyeong W
2.20

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par
Changnyeong W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Changnyeong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw
86%
Incheon Red Angels W or Changnyeong W
80%
Draw or Changnyeong W
34%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
41%
Changnyeong W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
87%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
61%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
34%
Changnyeong W 1+ goals
56%
Changnyeong W 2+ goals
20%
Changnyeong W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
82%
Changnyeong W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 83 matches

Changnyeong W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.92 + Changnyeong W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Changnyeong W attack 0.91 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more
66%
level
20%
Changnyeong W scores more
14%

Incheon Red Angels W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Incheon Red Angels W score first in only 11% of matches
  • Incheon Red Angels W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Changnyeong W win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDWD
W
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Incheon Red Angels W face Changnyeong W (WK-League)

WK-League returns with Incheon Red Angels W hosting Changnyeong W. Match starts October 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.