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Ilves W vs HJK W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Ilves W
Ilves W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
HJK W
HJK W
5/21/2022Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 8Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ilves W21%
×Draw21%
HJK W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves W
1.14
HJK W
2.05

HJK W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ilves W
1.35
HJK W
2.18

allows per match

Ilves W
1.92
HJK W
0.92

finishing

Ilves W+0.00on par
HJK W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves W ↓

HJK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ilves W or draw
42%
Ilves W or HJK W
79%
Draw or HJK W
79%

Winning margin

Ilves W wins by 2+
8%
HJK W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ilves W 1+ goals
68%
Ilves W 2+ goals
32%
Ilves W 3+ goals
11%
HJK W 1+ goals
87%
HJK W 2+ goals
61%
HJK W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ilves W (draw refunded)
26%
HJK W (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.92 · 65 matches

HJK W away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves W attack 1.35 + HJK W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

HJK W attack 2.18 + Ilves W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ilves W scores more
21%
level
21%
HJK W scores more
58%

HJK W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HJK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ilves W 0 – 4 HJK W

HJK W beat Ilves W 4-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.