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Ilves vs Stjarnan — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Ilves
Ilves
Preview
16:00
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTammelan Stadion
68%
Ilves
model favours
68%16%15%

83% of Stjarnan’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves68%
×Draw16%
Stjarnan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
2.75
Stjarnan
1.25

Ilves creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ilves
2.50
Stjarnan
1.00

allows per match

Ilves
1.50
Stjarnan
3.00

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Stjarnan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
85%
Ilves or Stjarnan
84%
Draw or Stjarnan
32%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
47%
Stjarnan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
93%
Ilves 2+ goals
75%
Ilves 3+ goals
51%
Stjarnan 1+ goals
71%
Stjarnan 2+ goals
36%
Stjarnan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
82%
Stjarnan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.50 + Stjarnan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Stjarnan attack 1.00 + Ilves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ilves scores more
68%
level
16%
Stjarnan scores more
15%

Ilves at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (68% and 83% over 2.5)
  • Stjarnan score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in 74% of Stjarnan’s matches
  • 68% of Ilves’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 71% of Ilves’s matches
  • Stjarnan win just 18% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ilves
LWWDL
Stjarnan
WLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ilves face Stjarnan (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with Ilves hosting Stjarnan. Match starts July 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ilves host Stjarnan at Tammelan Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.