Ilves 2–4 SJK: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Ilves

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

SJK

S. Haarala 45+5', 33'

M. Arsalo 84'

R. Karjalainen 50'

J. Moreno 22'

P. Hannola 13'

6/15/2024

Suomen Cup · 5th RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ilves36%

×Draw21%

SJK43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvesExpected goals in this matchSJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.98

Ilves

1.81

SJK

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

2.13

creates per match

2.83

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ilves

2.13

SJK

2.83

allows per match

Ilves

1.13

SJK

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par

SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

SJK →

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ilves or draw

57%

Ilves or SJK

79%

Draw or SJK

64%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+

19%

SJK wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals

84%

Ilves 2+ goals

54%

Ilves 3+ goals

27%

SJK 1+ goals

86%

SJK 2+ goals

59%

SJK 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)

46%

SJK (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

SJK away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.13 + SJK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

SJK attack 2.83 + Ilves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ilves scores more

36%

level

21%

SJK scores more

43%

SJK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Pires

13'

P. Hannola

22'

J. Moreno

29'

T. Miettunen← S. Benga

33'

S. Haarala

43'

D. Arifi

45+5'

S. Haarala

46'

A. Popovitch← D. Arifi

46'

M. Söderbäck← O. Jukkola

50'

R. Karjalainen

60'

T. Kaukua← R. Karjalainen

65'

66'

68'

71'

77'

J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

79'

T. Koivisto← K. Paananen

84'

M. Arsalo

87'

A. Mäenpää← M. Stjopin

90+2'

Jorginho

Ilves

SJK

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: J. Rantanen

29'▲T. Miettunen←▼S. Benga

46'▲A. Popovitch←▼D. Arifi

46'▲M. Söderbäck←▼O. Jukkola

68'▲V. Ulundu←▼R. Riski

87'▲A. Mäenpää←▼M. Stjopin

Ilves substitutes

MiettunenPopovitchSöderbäckUlunduMäenpääViitalaKivikko

Manager: S. Grieve

60'▲T. Kaukua←▼R. Karjalainen

66'▲S. Yussif←▼V. Gasc

79'▲T. Koivisto←▼K. Paananen

SJK substitutes

KaukuaYussifKoivistoMömmöRiihimäkiOforiLaine

Suomen Cup: Ilves 2–4 SJK

SJK beat Ilves 4-2 in Suomen Cup on June 15, 2024.

Goals: P. Hannola (13'), J. Moreno (22'), S. Haarala (33', 45+5'), R. Karjalainen (50'), M. Arsalo (84').

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.

Ilves vs SJK — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Suomen Cup: Ilves 2–4 SJK