Ilves vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018
Mariehamn score first in only 17% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
Ilves51%
Mariehamn25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ilves creates 53% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ilves ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches
Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ilves attack 1.63 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67
Mariehamn attack 1.02 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Ilves at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 69% of Ilves’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both teams score in 72% of Ilves’s matches
- Ilves matches are rarely goalless — only 2.6% end 0-0
- Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- Mariehamn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ilves host Mariehamn on Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the Veikkausliiga 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Ilves host Mariehamn
August 8, 2026: Ilves take on Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Ilves host Mariehamn at Tammelan Stadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.