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Ilves vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
6/20/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 15Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ilves50%
×Draw25%
Lahti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.59
Lahti
1.05

Ilves creates 51% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 101 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.63
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

Ilves
1.17
Lahti
1.56

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
75%
Ilves or Lahti
75%
Draw or Lahti
50%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
26%
Lahti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
80%
Ilves 2+ goals
47%
Ilves 3+ goals
21%
Lahti 1+ goals
65%
Lahti 2+ goals
28%
Lahti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
67%
Lahti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.63 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lahti attack 0.93 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ilves scores more
50%
level
25%
Lahti scores more
25%

Ilves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilves vs Lahti

Ilves and Lahti drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on June 20, 2018.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion (Tampere).