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Ilves vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS
KuPS
5/21/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 17Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ilves42%
×Draw25%
KuPS33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.55
KuPS
1.34

Ilves creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.66
KuPS
1.49

allows per match

Ilves
1.20
KuPS
1.44

finishing

Ilves+0.48scores more
KuPS-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
67%
Ilves or KuPS
75%
Draw or KuPS
58%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
21%
KuPS wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
79%
Ilves 2+ goals
46%
Ilves 3+ goals
20%
KuPS 1+ goals
74%
KuPS 2+ goals
39%
KuPS 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
56%
KuPS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.66 + KuPS defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

KuPS attack 1.49 + Ilves defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilves scores more
42%
level
25%
KuPS scores more
33%

Ilves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilves vs KuPS

Ilves beat KuPS 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.