Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ilves vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
8/31/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 22Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ilves42%
×Draw25%
Inter Turku33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.48
Inter Turku
1.27

Ilves creates 17% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.63
Inter Turku
1.38

allows per match

Ilves
1.17
Inter Turku
1.34

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
67%
Ilves or Inter Turku
75%
Draw or Inter Turku
58%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
20%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
77%
Ilves 2+ goals
43%
Ilves 3+ goals
19%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
72%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
36%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
56%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.63 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilves scores more
42%
level
25%
Inter Turku scores more
33%

Ilves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Ilves 0–1 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat Ilves 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion (Tampere).