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Ilves vs HJK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
5/11/2021VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 6Ratinan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ilves38%
×Draw23%
HJK Helsinki38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.65
HJK Helsinki
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.66
HJK Helsinki
2.10

allows per match

Ilves
1.20
HJK Helsinki
1.65

finishing

Ilves+0.48scores more
HJK Helsinki+0.50scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
62%
Ilves or HJK Helsinki
77%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
62%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
19%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
81%
Ilves 2+ goals
49%
Ilves 3+ goals
23%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
81%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
49%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
50%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.65 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.66 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

HJK Helsinki attack 2.10 + Ilves defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ilves scores more
38%
level
23%
HJK Helsinki scores more
38%

Ilves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilves vs HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat Ilves 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ratinan Stadion in Tammerfors.