Ilves 4–6 Gnistan: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Ilves

FT

4 – 6

HT: 2 – 0

Gnistan

R. Riski 81', 36'

D. Arifi 66'

O. Jukkola 40'

B. Tatar 90+5', 85'

J. Latonen 79' (pen), 73', 60'

P. Katajamäki 68'

4/13/2024

Veikkausliiga · Round 2Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ilves48%

×Draw24%

Gnistan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvesExpected goals in this matchGnistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.28

Ilves

1.73

Gnistan

1.28

Ilves creates 35% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 38 away

1.64

creates per match

1.39

1.18

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Ilves

1.64

Gnistan

1.39

allows per match

Ilves

1.18

Gnistan

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par

Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Gnistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ilves or draw

72%

Ilves or Gnistan

76%

Draw or Gnistan

52%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+

26%

Gnistan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals

82%

Ilves 2+ goals

52%

Ilves 3+ goals

25%

Gnistan 1+ goals

72%

Gnistan 2+ goals

37%

Gnistan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)

63%

Gnistan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.64 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gnistan attack 1.39 + Ilves defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilves scores more

48%

level

24%

Gnistan scores more

28%

Ilves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

36'

40'

46'

46'

P. Katajamäki← T. Penninkangas

52'

Elias Äijälä

57'

M. Umar← J. Pikkarainen

57'

M. Söderbäck← J. Veteli

60'

R. Pyyskänen← H. Woivalin

60'

J. Latonen

66'

D. Arifi↳ Jorginho

68'

P. Katajamäki↳ M. Sarr

71'

A. Mäenpää← F. Aspegren

73'

J. Latonen↳ A. Kabashi

75'

Armend Kabashi

78'

Tatu Miettunen

79'

J. LatonenPenalty

81'

R. Riski↳ M. Söderbäck

83'

Lauri Ala-Myllymäki

83'

B. Tatar← J. Latonen

85'

B. Tatar↳ M. Sarr

86'

Benjamin Tatar

89'

D. Bulgakov← A. Popovitch

90'

H. Ölander← P. Katajamäki

90+5'

B. Tatar↳ J. Enkerud

Ilves4-4-2

Gnistan4-3-3

10

⚽3

▼

Latonen

9

A

Enkerud

17

A

Sarr

28

A

Kabashi

20

▼

Agbo

6

▼

Woivalin

27

▼

40

22

3

12

1

3

A

Jorginho

16

Miettunen

5

▼

Pikkarain

42

▼

Aspegren

7

A

▼

Veteli

14

▼

Popovitch

6

⚽

Arifi

19

⚽

Jukkola

10

⚽2

Riski

15

Ala-Mylly

Manager: J. Rantanen

57'▲M. Umar←▼J. Pikkarainen

57'▲M. Söderbäck←▼J. Veteli

71'▲A. Mäenpää←▼F. Aspegren

89'▲D. Bulgakov←▼A. Popovitch

Ilves substitutes

4Umar17Söderbäck22Mäenpää31Bulgakov12Viitala27Riissanen23Hasa

Manager: J. Leppälahti

46'▲E. Äijälä←▼D. Agbo

46'▲P. Katajamäki←▼T. Penninkangas

60'▲R. Pyyskänen←▼H. Woivalin

83'▲B. Tatar←▼J. Latonen

90'▲H. Ölander←▼P. Katajamäki

Gnistan substitutes

2Äijälä11Katajamäki18Pyyskänen31Tatar14Ölander30Mabinda45Koski

Ilves 4 – 6 Gnistan

Gnistan beat Ilves 6-4 in Veikkausliiga on April 13, 2024.

Goals: R. Riski (36', 81'), O. Jukkola (40'), J. Latonen (60', 73', 79' pen), D. Arifi (66'), P. Katajamäki (68'), B. Tatar (85', 90+5').

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.

Ilves vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ilves 4 – 6 Gnistan