Ilves II 2–4 Honka Akatemia: Result & Stats

Ilves II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Honka Akatemia

7/6/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 5Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ilves II41%

×Draw23%

Honka Akatemia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IIExpected goals in this matchHonka Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.56

Ilves II

1.70

Honka Akatemia

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 56 away

2.10

creates per match

1.57

1.56

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ilves II

2.10

Honka Akatemia

1.57

allows per match

Ilves II

1.56

Honka Akatemia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

Honka Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw

65%

Ilves II or Honka Akatemia

77%

Draw or Honka Akatemia

59%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+

21%

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals

82%

Ilves II 2+ goals

51%

Ilves II 3+ goals

24%

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

79%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

46%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)

54%

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.56 · 79 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 2.10 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.70

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + Ilves II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ilves II scores more

41%

level

23%

Honka Akatemia scores more

35%

Ilves II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ilves II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff