Ilves II 3–1 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

Ilves II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HJS Akatemia

O. Paavola 66', 59'

J. Ojanen 22'

M. Paussu 56'

9/28/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 16Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ilves II48%

×Draw22%

HJS Akatemia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IIExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.50

Ilves II

1.93

HJS Akatemia

1.50

Ilves II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

2.10

creates per match

1.45

1.56

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ilves II

2.10

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

Ilves II

1.56

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw

70%

Ilves II or HJS Akatemia

78%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

52%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+

27%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals

85%

Ilves II 2+ goals

57%

Ilves II 3+ goals

30%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

78%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

44%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)

61%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 2.10 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + Ilves II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilves II scores more

48%

level

22%

HJS Akatemia scores more

30%

Ilves II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilves II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Ojanen

38'

E. Asikainen← I. Talvitie

43'

A. Lahteenmaki

46'

M. Paussu← V. Lindberg

56'

59'

66'

72'

72'

J. Ndongala← S. Keskitalo

78'

R. Väisänen← A. Lähteenmäki

80'

A. Mukkila← J. Thusberg

90+1'

T. Ala← L. Pentti

90+1'

A. Ciriaco← J. Ojanen

Ilves

HJS

1

Immonen

8

Kyöstilä

14

▼

Keskitalo

26

Supperi

9

Bos

19

▼

Thusberg

18

Balde

13

Paakkanen

33

▼

Törmä

15

▼

17

32

13

18

▼

19

6

3

11

7

⚽

▼

Ojanen

30

▼

Talvitie

28

▼

Lähteenmä

9

⚽2

Paavola

Manager: M. Lahtinen

38'▲E. Asikainen←▼I. Talvitie

78'▲R. Väisänen←▼A. Lähteenmäki

90+1'▲T. Ala←▼L. Pentti

90+1'▲A. Ciriaco←▼J. Ojanen

Ilves II substitutes

20Asikainen27Väisänen8Ala16Ciriaco21Hallivuori29Korsunov12Viitala

Manager: T. Silvennoinen

46'▲M. Paussu←▼V. Lindberg

72'▲O. Luoma←▼T. Törmä

72'▲J. Ndongala←▼S. Keskitalo

80'▲A. Mukkila←▼J. Thusberg

HJS Akatemia substitutes

21Paussu3Luoma5Ndongala7Mukkila2Junna31Orava24Nshizirungu

Match Recap: Ilves II vs HJS Akatemia

Ilves II beat HJS Akatemia 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Ojanen (22'), M. Paussu (56'), O. Paavola (59', 66').

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.

Ilves II vs HJS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ilves II vs HJS Akatemia