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Illueca vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cuarte
Cuarte
12/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 14Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Illueca35%
×Draw29%
Cuarte36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.10
Cuarte
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 112 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Cuarte
1.08

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Cuarte
0.96

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Cuarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
64%
Illueca or Cuarte
71%
Draw or Cuarte
65%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
14%
Cuarte wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
67%
Illueca 2+ goals
30%
Illueca 3+ goals
10%
Cuarte 1+ goals
67%
Cuarte 2+ goals
30%
Cuarte 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
50%
Cuarte (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Illueca scores more
35%
level
29%
Cuarte scores more
36%

Cuarte at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Illueca vs Cuarte

Illueca beat Cuarte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.