Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ilbirs vs Abdish-Ata — Premier League 2019

Ilbirs
Ilbirs
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ilbirs26%
×Draw23%
Abdish-Ata50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilbirs
1.22
Abdish-Ata
1.77

Abdish-Ata creates 45% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 94 away

creates per match

Ilbirs
1.18
Abdish-Ata
1.94

allows per match

Ilbirs
1.59
Abdish-Ata
1.26

finishing

Ilbirs+0.00on par
Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilbirs ↓

Abdish-Ata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ilbirs or draw
50%
Ilbirs or Abdish-Ata
77%
Draw or Abdish-Ata
74%

Winning margin

Ilbirs wins by 2+
11%
Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ilbirs 1+ goals
70%
Ilbirs 2+ goals
34%
Ilbirs 3+ goals
12%
Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
83%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
53%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ilbirs (draw refunded)
34%
Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilbirs at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.26 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilbirs attack 1.18 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Abdish-Ata attack 1.94 + Ilbirs defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ilbirs scores more
26%
level
23%
Abdish-Ata scores more
50%

Abdish-Ata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilbirs vs Abdish-Ata

Abdish-Ata beat Ilbirs 3-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant in Kant.