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Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
Preview
17:00
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
11/22/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 15
47%
Iğdır FK
model favours
47%26%27%

Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Iğdır FK47%
×Draw26%
Ümraniyespor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.48
Ümraniyespor
1.05

Iğdır FK creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 125 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Ümraniyespor
1.16

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Ümraniyespor
1.42

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
73%
Iğdır FK or Ümraniyespor
74%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
53%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
23%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
77%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
43%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
19%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
65%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
28%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
64%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
47%
level
26%
Ümraniyespor scores more
27%

Iğdır FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Iğdır FK
Balanced
Ümraniyespor
Defensively solid
55%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy79%
9.5ShotsBiggest gap12.1
1.44xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Iğdır FKÜmraniyespor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Iğdır FK
2
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Avg goals: 1BTTS: 25%
1–11–00–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FK
DLDWL
Ümraniyespor
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor — Match Preview

Iğdır FK face Ümraniyespor on November 22, 2026 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.