Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Iğdır FK vs Sarıyer — 1. Lig 2018

Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
Preview
16:00
Sarıyer
Sarıyer
4/11/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 33
51%
Iğdır FK
model favours
51%26%23%
1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Iğdır FK51%
×Draw26%
Sarıyer23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iğdır FK
1.50
Sarıyer
0.90

Iğdır FK creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Iğdır FK
1.53
Sarıyer
0.84

allows per match

Iğdır FK
0.95
Sarıyer
1.47

finishing

Iğdır FK+0.00on par
Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iğdır FK ↓

Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Iğdır FK or draw
77%
Iğdır FK or Sarıyer
74%
Draw or Sarıyer
49%

Winning margin

Iğdır FK wins by 2+
26%
Sarıyer wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Iğdır FK 1+ goals
78%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
44%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
19%
Sarıyer 1+ goals
59%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
23%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
69%
Sarıyer (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iğdır FK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iğdır FK attack 1.53 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Iğdır FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Iğdır FK scores more
51%
level
26%
Sarıyer scores more
23%

Iğdır FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FK
DLDWL
Sarıyer
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iğdır FK vs Sarıyer — Match Preview

Iğdır FK face Sarıyer on April 11, 2027 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.