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Igalo vs Rudar — Second League 2019

Igalo
Igalo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rudar
Rudar
4/2/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Stadion Solila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Igalo43%
×Draw26%
Rudar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igalo
1.42
Rudar
1.17

Igalo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 35 away

creates per match

Igalo
1.38
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Igalo
1.05
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Igalo+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igalo ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Igalo or draw
69%
Igalo or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
57%

Winning margin

Igalo wins by 2+
20%
Rudar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Igalo 1+ goals
76%
Igalo 2+ goals
41%
Igalo 3+ goals
17%
Rudar 1+ goals
69%
Rudar 2+ goals
33%
Rudar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Igalo (draw refunded)
58%
Rudar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igalo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igalo attack 1.38 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rudar attack 1.29 + Igalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Igalo scores more
43%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
31%

Igalo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Igalo 2–2 Rudar

Igalo and Rudar drew 2-2 in Second League on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Solila in Igalo.