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Igalo vs Internacional Podgorica — Second League 2019

Igalo
Igalo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
3/10/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Solila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Igalo55%
×Draw24%
Internacional Podgorica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igalo
1.73
Internacional Podgorica
0.96

Igalo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 36 away

creates per match

Igalo
1.38
Internacional Podgorica
0.86

allows per match

Igalo
1.05
Internacional Podgorica
2.08

finishing

Igalo+0.00on par
Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igalo ↓

Internacional Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Igalo or draw
79%
Igalo or Internacional Podgorica
76%
Draw or Internacional Podgorica
45%

Winning margin

Igalo wins by 2+
31%
Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Igalo 1+ goals
82%
Igalo 2+ goals
52%
Igalo 3+ goals
25%
Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
62%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
25%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Igalo (draw refunded)
73%
Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igalo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igalo attack 1.38 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Igalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Igalo scores more
55%
level
24%
Internacional Podgorica scores more
21%

Igalo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Igalo 0–1 Internacional Podgorica

Internacional Podgorica beat Igalo 1-0 in Second League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Solila in Igalo.