IFK Skövde vs Jonkopings Sodra

IFK Skövde

Preview

17:00

Jonkopings Sodra

7/27/2026

Svenska Cupen · Semi-finals

47%

Jonkopings Sodra

model favours

33%21%47%

Jonkopings Sodra score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

76%

over 2.5 goals

74%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IFK Skövde33%

×Draw21%

Jonkopings Sodra47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK SkövdeExpected goals in this matchJonkopings Sodra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.19

IFK Skövde

1.81

Jonkopings Sodra

2.19

Jonkopings Sodra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.75

creates per match

0.88

3.50

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

IFK Skövde

0.75

Jonkopings Sodra

0.88

allows per match

IFK Skövde

3.50

Jonkopings Sodra

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw

53%

IFK Skövde or Jonkopings Sodra

79%

Draw or Jonkopings Sodra

67%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+

16%

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals

84%

IFK Skövde 2+ goals

54%

IFK Skövde 3+ goals

27%

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

89%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

64%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)

41%

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 0.75 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.88 + IFK Skövde defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IFK Skövde scores more

33%

level

21%

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

47%

Jonkopings Sodra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Skövde

LWLWL

Sodra

LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff