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IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
3/6/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg25%
×Draw23%
Mjallby AIF52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.18
Mjallby AIF
1.82

Mjallby AIF creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Mjallby AIF
2.79

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Mjallby AIF
0.50

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
48%
IFK Goteborg or Mjallby AIF
77%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
75%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
10%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
69%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
33%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
12%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
84%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
54%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
32%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
25%
level
23%
Mjallby AIF scores more
52%

Mjallby AIF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Goteborg 2–2 Mjallby AIF

IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF drew 2-2 in Svenska Cupen on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.