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IF Karlstad vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
Preview
14:00
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
9/5/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 20Sola Arena
Big match
51%
IF Karlstad
model favours
51%21%28%

IF Karlstad score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IF Karlstad51%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Karlstad
2.17
AFC Eskilstuna
1.56

IF Karlstad creates 39% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 37 away

creates per match

IF Karlstad
1.97
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

IF Karlstad
1.36
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

IF Karlstad+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Karlstad ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

IF Karlstad or draw
72%
IF Karlstad or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
49%

Winning margin

IF Karlstad wins by 2+
31%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IF Karlstad 1+ goals
89%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
64%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
36%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
46%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
65%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Karlstad at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Karlstad attack 1.97 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + IF Karlstad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

IF Karlstad scores more
51%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
28%

IF Karlstad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Karlstad
LDWWW
Eskilstuna
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IF Karlstad face AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)

Ettan - Norra returns with IF Karlstad hosting AFC Eskilstuna. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

IF Karlstad host AFC Eskilstuna at Sola Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.