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IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborgadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
3/13/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Quarter-finalsBorås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Elfsborg38%
×Draw23%
IFK Goteborg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.65
IFK Goteborg
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
2.23
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
0.92
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
60%
IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg
77%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
62%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
19%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
81%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
49%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
23%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
82%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
51%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
49%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 2.23 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
38%
level
23%
IFK Goteborg scores more
40%

IFK Goteborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IF Elfsborg 1–0 IFK Goteborg

IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.