IF Elfsborg 2–0 Gais: Result & Stats

IF Elfsborg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gais

J. Abdulai 90+6'

S. Holmén 80'

2/18/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Elfsborg55%

×Draw22%

Gais23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ElfsborgExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.18

IF Elfsborg

1.95

Gais

1.18

IF Elfsborg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.23

creates per match

1.44

0.92

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

IF Elfsborg

2.23

Gais

1.44

allows per match

IF Elfsborg

0.92

Gais

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw

77%

IF Elfsborg or Gais

78%

Draw or Gais

45%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

32%

Gais wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

86%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

58%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

31%

Gais 1+ goals

69%

Gais 2+ goals

33%

Gais 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

71%

Gais (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Gais away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 2.23 + Gais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gais attack 1.44 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more

55%

level

22%

Gais scores more

23%

IF Elfsborg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

20'

37'

60'

64'

R. Frej← C. Amatkarijo

64'

A. Ahl-Holmström← J. Cooper-Love

67'

C. Jebara← G. Rapp

67'

J. Abdulai← P. Frick

76'

F. Gustafsson← J. Åberg

80'

81'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

90+1'

90'

90'

90+6'

IF

Gais

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Thelin

60'▲A. Qasem←▼S. Hedlund

67'▲C. Jebara←▼G. Rapp

67'▲J. Abdulai←▼P. Frick

90+1'▲B. Zeneli←▼A. Qasem

IF Elfsborg substitutes

QasemJebaraAbdulaiZeneliBomanBuhariUppenbergSöderbergOuma

Manager: F. Holmberg

64'▲R. Frej←▼C. Amatkarijo

64'▲A. Ahl-Holmström←▼J. Cooper-Love

76'▲F. Gustafsson←▼J. Åberg

90'▲C. Chidi←▼M. Çelik

90'▲M. Bawa←▼A. Norén

Gais substitutes

FrejAhl-HolmströmGustafssonChidiBawaKrantzSimsZemmale