IF Brommapojkarna 3–0 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Trelleborg

M. Gustafsson 70'

J. Lahne 23'

I. Jönsson 13' (OG)

11/11/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 30Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna46%

×Draw24%

Trelleborg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.24

IF Brommapojkarna

1.63

Trelleborg

1.24

IF Brommapojkarna creates 31% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

0.80

1.68

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.18

Trelleborg

0.80

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.68

Trelleborg

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

71%

IF Brommapojkarna or Trelleborg

76%

Draw or Trelleborg

54%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

24%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

80%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

48%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

22%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

71%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

35%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

61%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 66 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.18 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

46%

level

24%

Trelleborg scores more

29%

IF Brommapojkarna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Brandeborn

IF Brommapojkarna · M

8.1

Match Events

6'

Isak Jonsson

13'

I. JönssonOwn goal

23'

J. Lahne↳ C. Brandeborn

26'

Ludvig Ohman

46'

F. Brorsson← Z. Jovanovic

70'

M. Gustafsson↳ C. Brandeborn

73'

L. Nielsen← K. Sarkodie

73'

H. Brkic← O. Johansson

79'

P. Petrovic← J. Lahne

83'

T. Söderström← M. Jeahze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFTrelleborg

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots11

5Corners9

10Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target1

1Off Target9

4Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

362Total Passes623

287Accurate Passes540

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0