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IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
8/4/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 16Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna42%
×Draw26%
Dalkurd FF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.46
Dalkurd FF
1.24

IF Brommapojkarna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.18
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.68
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
68%
IF Brommapojkarna or Dalkurd FF
74%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
58%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
20%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
77%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
43%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
18%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
71%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
35%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
57%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 66 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.18 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
42%
level
26%
Dalkurd FF scores more
32%

IF Brommapojkarna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF

IF Brommapojkarna beat Dalkurd FF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.