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Iceland vs Türkiye — League #32 2026

Iceland
Iceland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Türkiye
Türkiye
A. Finnbogason 44'
Ö. Toprak 41' (OG)
10/9/2016League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 3Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iceland52%
×Draw20%
Türkiye28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iceland
2.33
Türkiye
1.67

Iceland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Iceland
2.33
Türkiye
1.67

allows per match

Iceland
1.67
Türkiye
2.33

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Iceland or draw
72%
Iceland or Türkiye
80%
Draw or Türkiye
48%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+
32%
Türkiye wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals
90%
Iceland 2+ goals
67%
Iceland 3+ goals
41%
Türkiye 1+ goals
81%
Türkiye 2+ goals
50%
Türkiye 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)
65%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 2.33 + Türkiye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Türkiye attack 1.67 + Iceland defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Iceland scores more
52%
level
20%
Türkiye scores more
28%

Iceland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Birkir Bjarnason
40'
Volkan Şen
41'
Ö. ToprakOwn goal
44'
A. Finnbogason↳ K. Árnason
45'
T. Ciğerci← O. Tufan
53'
Emre Mor
59'
C. Tosun← Y. Öztekin
62'
B. Sigurðarson← J. Böðvarsson
67'
M. Erdinç← V. Şen
68'
V. Kjartansson← A. Finnbogason
76'
Elmar Bjarnason
86'
H. Magnússon← E. Bjarnason

Possession

49%Iceland

Shots

11Iceland

Statistics

IcelandTürkiye
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots8
8Corners3
21Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots8
6On Target2
5Off Target6
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

League #32: Iceland 2–0 Türkiye

Iceland beat Türkiye 2-0 in League #32 on October 9, 2016.

Goals: Ö. Toprak (41' o.g.), A. Finnbogason (44').

Türkiye controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík.