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Ibrachina U20 vs Santo André U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
Preview
18:00
Santo André U20
Santo André U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
57%
Ibrachina U20
model favours
57%21%22%

Ibrachina U20 are unbeaten in 13 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ibrachina U2057%
×Draw21%
Santo André U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibrachina U20
2.13
Santo André U20
1.27

Ibrachina U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ibrachina U20
2.76
Santo André U20
1.50

allows per match

Ibrachina U20
1.04
Santo André U20
1.50

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par
Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw
78%
Ibrachina U20 or Santo André U20
79%
Draw or Santo André U20
43%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
35%
Santo André U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
88%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
63%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
35%
Santo André U20 1+ goals
72%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
36%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more
57%
level
21%
Santo André U20 scores more
22%

Ibrachina U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ibrachina U20 have won 7 in a row
  • Ibrachina U20 have scored in 13 games running
  • Santo André U20 score first in only 18% of matches
  • 69% of Ibrachina U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Ibrachina U20 sit 1, Santo André U20 12 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWWWW
U20
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ibrachina U20 host Santo André U20

August 11, 2026: Ibrachina U20 take on Santo André U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.