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Ibiza vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
10/11/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadi Municipal de Can Misses
Big match
50%
Ibiza
model favours
50%27%24%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ibiza50%
×Draw27%
Real Madrid II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.46
Real Madrid II
0.92

Ibiza creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
76%
Ibiza or Real Madrid II
73%
Draw or Real Madrid II
50%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
25%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
77%
Ibiza 2+ goals
43%
Ibiza 3+ goals
18%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
60%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
23%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
68%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibiza scores more
50%
level
27%
Real Madrid II scores more
24%

Ibiza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ibiza
LWLWD
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibiza face Real Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Ibiza hosting Real Madrid II. Match starts October 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ibiza host Real Madrid II at Estadi Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.