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Ibiza vs FC Cartagena — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
Preview
16:00
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
11/15/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadi Municipal de Can Misses
Big match
53%
Ibiza
model favours
53%28%19%

Ibiza raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ibiza53%
×Draw28%
FC Cartagena19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.40
FC Cartagena
0.72

Ibiza creates 94% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
FC Cartagena
0.58

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
FC Cartagena
1.16

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
81%
Ibiza or FC Cartagena
72%
Draw or FC Cartagena
47%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
26%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
75%
Ibiza 2+ goals
41%
Ibiza 3+ goals
17%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
51%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
16%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
73%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Cartagena attack 0.58 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ibiza scores more
53%
level
28%
FC Cartagena scores more
19%

Ibiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ibiza
LWLWD
Cartagena
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ibiza host FC Cartagena

November 15, 2026: Ibiza take on FC Cartagena in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ibiza host FC Cartagena at Estadi Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.