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Ibiza vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
Preview
16:00
Algeciras
Algeciras
1/10/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadi Municipal de Can Misses
Big match
50%
Ibiza
model favours
50%26%24%

Ibiza raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ibiza50%
×Draw26%
Algeciras24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.53
Algeciras
0.96

Ibiza creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Algeciras
1.05

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Algeciras
1.41

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
76%
Ibiza or Algeciras
74%
Draw or Algeciras
50%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
26%
Algeciras wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
78%
Ibiza 2+ goals
45%
Ibiza 3+ goals
20%
Algeciras 1+ goals
62%
Algeciras 2+ goals
25%
Algeciras 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
68%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibiza scores more
50%
level
26%
Algeciras scores more
24%

Ibiza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ibiza
LWLWD
Algeciras
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibiza vs Algeciras — Match Preview

Ibiza face Algeciras on January 10, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ibiza host Algeciras at Estadi Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.