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Ibiza vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
Preview
15:00
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadi Municipal de Can Misses
Big match
51%
Ibiza
model favours
51%26%23%

Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ibiza51%
×Draw26%
Alcorcon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.48
Alcorcon
0.89

Ibiza creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Alcorcon
0.92

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Alcorcon
1.32

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
77%
Ibiza or Alcorcon
74%
Draw or Alcorcon
49%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
26%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
77%
Ibiza 2+ goals
43%
Ibiza 3+ goals
19%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
59%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
22%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
69%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ibiza scores more
51%
level
26%
Alcorcon scores more
23%

Ibiza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ibiza
LWLWD
Alcorcon
DWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ibiza host Alcorcon

April 4, 2027: Ibiza take on Alcorcon in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ibiza host Alcorcon at Estadi Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.