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Iberia vs San Antonio Unido — Segunda División 2020

Iberia
Iberia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio Unido
San Antonio Unido
2/6/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Iberia38%
×Draw27%
San Antonio Unido35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iberia
1.27
San Antonio Unido
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

creates per match

Iberia
1.22
San Antonio Unido
1.20

allows per match

Iberia
1.22
San Antonio Unido
1.31

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par
San Antonio Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

San Antonio Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iberia or draw
65%
Iberia or San Antonio Unido
73%
Draw or San Antonio Unido
62%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+
17%
San Antonio Unido wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals
72%
Iberia 2+ goals
36%
Iberia 3+ goals
14%
San Antonio Unido 1+ goals
70%
San Antonio Unido 2+ goals
34%
San Antonio Unido 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)
52%
San Antonio Unido (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

San Antonio Unido away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + San Antonio Unido defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Antonio Unido attack 1.20 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Iberia scores more
38%
level
27%
San Antonio Unido scores more
35%

Iberia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iberia vs San Antonio Unido

Iberia and San Antonio Unido drew 0-0 in Segunda División on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles in Los Ángeles.