Iberia 0–1 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Iberia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

General Velásquez

12/20/2020

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Iberia39%

×Draw28%

General Velásquez33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IberiaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Iberia

1.27

General Velásquez

1.14

Iberia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 77 away

1.22

creates per match

1.06

1.22

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Iberia

1.22

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Iberia

1.22

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Iberia or draw

67%

Iberia or General Velásquez

72%

Draw or General Velásquez

61%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+

17%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals

72%

Iberia 2+ goals

36%

Iberia 3+ goals

14%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

68%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

32%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)

54%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Iberia scores more

39%

level

28%

General Velásquez scores more

33%

Iberia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff