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Ibarra vs Tamaraceite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ibarra40%
×Draw28%
Tamaraceite32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.24
Tamaraceite
1.08

Ibarra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
Tamaraceite
1.02

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
Tamaraceite
1.30

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Tamaraceite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
68%
Ibarra or Tamaraceite
72%
Draw or Tamaraceite
60%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
17%
Tamaraceite wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
71%
Ibarra 2+ goals
35%
Ibarra 3+ goals
13%
Tamaraceite 1+ goals
66%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
29%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
55%
Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Tamaraceite away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Tamaraceite defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tamaraceite attack 1.02 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ibarra scores more
40%
level
28%
Tamaraceite scores more
32%

Ibarra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibarra vs Tamaraceite

Tamaraceite beat Ibarra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.