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Ibar vs Grbalj — Second League 2019

Ibar
Ibar
FT
2 – 0
Grbalj
Grbalj
10/3/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Bandzovo Brdo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ibar41%
×Draw27%
Grbalj32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibar
1.32
Grbalj
1.12

Ibar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ibar
1.29
Grbalj
1.04

allows per match

Ibar
1.20
Grbalj
1.35

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par
Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Grbalj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibar or draw
68%
Ibar or Grbalj
73%
Draw or Grbalj
59%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+
19%
Grbalj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals
73%
Ibar 2+ goals
38%
Ibar 3+ goals
15%
Grbalj 1+ goals
67%
Grbalj 2+ goals
31%
Grbalj 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)
57%
Grbalj (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Grbalj away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Grbalj defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Grbalj attack 1.04 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ibar scores more
41%
level
27%
Grbalj scores more
32%

Ibar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibar 2 – 0 Grbalj

Ibar beat Grbalj 2-0 in Second League on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bandzovo Brdo in Rožaje.