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IB 1975 Ljubljana vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

IB 1975 Ljubljana
IB 1975 Ljubljana
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
10/3/20263. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 8
38%
Adria
model favours
37%25%38%

IB 1975 Ljubljana and Adria have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

IB 1975 Ljubljana37%
×Draw25%
Adria38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IB 1975 Ljubljana
1.38
Adria
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

IB 1975 Ljubljana
1.54
Adria
1.44

allows per match

IB 1975 Ljubljana
1.38
Adria
1.22

finishing

IB 1975 Ljubljana+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IB 1975 Ljubljana ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IB 1975 Ljubljana or draw
62%
IB 1975 Ljubljana or Adria
75%
Draw or Adria
63%

Winning margin

IB 1975 Ljubljana wins by 2+
17%
Adria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IB 1975 Ljubljana 1+ goals
75%
IB 1975 Ljubljana 2+ goals
40%
IB 1975 Ljubljana 3+ goals
16%
Adria 1+ goals
76%
Adria 2+ goals
41%
Adria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IB 1975 Ljubljana (draw refunded)
49%
Adria (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IB 1975 Ljubljana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IB 1975 Ljubljana attack 1.54 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Adria attack 1.44 + IB 1975 Ljubljana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IB 1975 Ljubljana scores more
37%
level
25%
Adria scores more
38%

Adria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ljubljana
LWWWL
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IB 1975 Ljubljana face Adria (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with IB 1975 Ljubljana hosting Adria. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.