IA Akranes vs FH hafnarfjordur

IA Akranes

Preview

17:00

FH hafnarfjordur

8/23/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 20

Big match

44%

IA Akranes

model favours

44%22%34%

FH hafnarfjordur are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

67%

over 2.5 goals

67%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IA Akranes44%

×Draw22%

FH hafnarfjordur34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IA AkranesExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.61

IA Akranes

1.85

FH hafnarfjordur

1.61

IA Akranes creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

1.68

1.55

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

IA Akranes

1.41

FH hafnarfjordur

1.68

allows per match

IA Akranes

1.55

FH hafnarfjordur

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw

66%

IA Akranes or FH hafnarfjordur

78%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

56%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+

24%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals

84%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

55%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

28%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

80%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

48%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

56%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.41 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.68 + IA Akranes defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IA Akranes scores more

44%

level

22%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

34%

IA Akranes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

71% of IA Akranes’s matches go over 2.5 goals
IA Akranes score first in 65% of matches
Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 62% over 2.5)
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Akranes

LLLLW

hafnarfjordur

WDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff