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I-Kissat vs VJS — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

I-Kissat
I-Kissat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
VJS
VJS
6/19/2021Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 3Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

I-Kissat42%
×Draw21%
VJS37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

I-Kissat
2.03
VJS
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 33 away

creates per match

I-Kissat
2.18
VJS
1.55

allows per match

I-Kissat
2.23
VJS
1.88

finishing

I-Kissat+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

I-Kissat ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

I-Kissat or draw
63%
I-Kissat or VJS
79%
Draw or VJS
58%

Winning margin

I-Kissat wins by 2+
23%
VJS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

I-Kissat 1+ goals
87%
I-Kissat 2+ goals
60%
I-Kissat 3+ goals
33%
VJS 1+ goals
85%
VJS 2+ goals
56%
VJS 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

I-Kissat (draw refunded)
53%
VJS (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

I-Kissat at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

VJS away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

I-Kissat attack 2.18 + VJS defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.03

VJS attack 1.55 + I-Kissat defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

I-Kissat scores more
42%
level
21%
VJS scores more
37%

I-Kissat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: I-Kissat vs VJS

I-Kissat beat VJS 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.