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I-Kissat vs Ilves II — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

I-Kissat
I-Kissat
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ilves II
Ilves II
8/17/2021Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 8Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

I-Kissat42%
×Draw20%
Ilves II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

I-Kissat
2.14
Ilves II
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

creates per match

I-Kissat
2.18
Ilves II
1.77

allows per match

I-Kissat
2.23
Ilves II
2.10

finishing

I-Kissat+0.00on par
Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

I-Kissat ↓

Ilves II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

I-Kissat or draw
63%
I-Kissat or Ilves II
80%
Draw or Ilves II
58%

Winning margin

I-Kissat wins by 2+
24%
Ilves II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

I-Kissat 1+ goals
88%
I-Kissat 2+ goals
63%
I-Kissat 3+ goals
36%
Ilves II 1+ goals
86%
Ilves II 2+ goals
59%
Ilves II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

I-Kissat (draw refunded)
53%
Ilves II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

I-Kissat at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Ilves II away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.10 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

I-Kissat attack 2.18 + Ilves II defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.14

Ilves II attack 1.77 + I-Kissat defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

I-Kissat scores more
42%
level
20%
Ilves II scores more
37%

I-Kissat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: I-Kissat vs Ilves II

I-Kissat and Ilves II drew 2-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.