Hyderabad 4–0 Kerala Blasters: Result & Stats

Hyderabad

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kerala Blasters

2/16/2021

Indian Super League · Round 20Tilak Maidan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hyderabad40%

×Draw25%

Kerala Blasters35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HyderabadExpected goals in this matchKerala Blasters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.35

Hyderabad

1.46

Kerala Blasters

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 67 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

1.52

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Hyderabad

1.30

Kerala Blasters

1.19

allows per match

Hyderabad

1.52

Kerala Blasters

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hyderabad+0.00on par

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyderabad ↓

Kerala Blasters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hyderabad or draw

65%

Hyderabad or Kerala Blasters

75%

Draw or Kerala Blasters

60%

Winning margin

Hyderabad wins by 2+

19%

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hyderabad 1+ goals

77%

Hyderabad 2+ goals

43%

Hyderabad 3+ goals

18%

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

74%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

39%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hyderabad (draw refunded)

53%

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyderabad at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Kerala Blasters away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyderabad attack 1.30 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kerala Blasters attack 1.19 + Hyderabad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hyderabad scores more

40%

level

25%

Kerala Blasters scores more

35%

Hyderabad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hyderabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff