Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hyderabad vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Indian Super League 2019

Hyderabad
Hyderabad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
3/9/2023Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsGMC Balayogi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Hyderabad29%
×Draw25%
ATK Mohun Bagan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hyderabad
1.15
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.53

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

creates per match

Hyderabad
1.30
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.54

allows per match

Hyderabad
1.52
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.00

finishing

Hyderabad+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyderabad ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hyderabad or draw
54%
Hyderabad or ATK Mohun Bagan
75%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
71%

Winning margin

Hyderabad wins by 2+
11%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hyderabad 1+ goals
68%
Hyderabad 2+ goals
32%
Hyderabad 3+ goals
11%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
78%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
45%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hyderabad (draw refunded)
38%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyderabad at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyderabad attack 1.30 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.54 + Hyderabad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hyderabad scores more
29%
level
25%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
46%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hyderabad vs ATK Mohun Bagan

Hyderabad and ATK Mohun Bagan drew 0-0 in Indian Super League on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at GMC Balayogi Stadium in Hyderabad.