Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hwaseong vs Asan Mugunghwa — K League 2 2026

Hwaseong
Hwaseong
Preview
10:30
Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
7/25/2026K League 2K League 2 · Round 19Hwaseong Stadium
39%
Hwaseong
model favours
39%29%32%

Hwaseong win just 14% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hwaseong39%
×Draw29%
Asan Mugunghwa32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaseong
1.18
Asan Mugunghwa
1.04

Hwaseong creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 113 away

creates per match

Hwaseong
1.06
Asan Mugunghwa
1.06

allows per match

Hwaseong
1.03
Asan Mugunghwa
1.29

finishing

Hwaseong+0.00on par
Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaseong ↓

Asan Mugunghwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hwaseong or draw
68%
Hwaseong or Asan Mugunghwa
71%
Draw or Asan Mugunghwa
61%

Winning margin

Hwaseong wins by 2+
17%
Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hwaseong 1+ goals
69%
Hwaseong 2+ goals
33%
Hwaseong 3+ goals
12%
Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
65%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
28%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hwaseong (draw refunded)
55%
Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaseong at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Asan Mugunghwa away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaseong attack 1.06 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.06 + Hwaseong defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hwaseong scores more
39%
level
29%
Asan Mugunghwa scores more
32%

Hwaseong at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hwaseong
DWLLW
Mugunghwa
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hwaseong face Asan Mugunghwa (K League 2)

K League 2 returns with Hwaseong hosting Asan Mugunghwa. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hwaseong host Asan Mugunghwa at Hwaseong Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.