Hwacheon KSPO W 0–0 Suwon FMC W: Result & Stats

Hwacheon KSPO W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Suwon FMC W

4/25/2023

WK-League · Round 7Hwacheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hwacheon KSPO W41%

×Draw25%

Suwon FMC W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hwacheon KSPO WExpected goals in this matchSuwon FMC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.48

Suwon FMC W

1.31

Hwacheon KSPO W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 89 away

1.73

creates per match

1.61

1.02

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.73

Suwon FMC W

1.61

allows per match

Hwacheon KSPO W

1.02

Suwon FMC W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Suwon FMC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwacheon KSPO W ↓

Suwon FMC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hwacheon KSPO W or draw

66%

Hwacheon KSPO W or Suwon FMC W

75%

Draw or Suwon FMC W

59%

Winning margin

Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+

20%

Suwon FMC W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals

77%

Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals

43%

Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals

19%

Suwon FMC W 1+ goals

73%

Suwon FMC W 2+ goals

38%

Suwon FMC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)

55%

Suwon FMC W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwacheon KSPO W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

Suwon FMC W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.73 + Suwon FMC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Suwon FMC W attack 1.61 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hwacheon KSPO W scores more

41%

level

25%

Suwon FMC W scores more

34%

Hwacheon KSPO W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hwacheon KSPO W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff