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HV & CV Quick vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
FT
1 – 1
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
10/27/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 9Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg (Den Haag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

HV & CV Quick41%
×Draw23%
OFC Oostzaan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HV & CV Quick
1.73
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 31 away

creates per match

HV & CV Quick
1.85
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

HV & CV Quick
1.48
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw
64%
HV & CV Quick or OFC Oostzaan
77%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
59%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
21%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
82%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
52%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
25%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
80%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
48%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
53%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more
41%
level
23%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
36%

HV & CV Quick at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: HV & CV Quick 1–1 OFC Oostzaan

HV & CV Quick and OFC Oostzaan drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg (Den Haag).