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Husqvarna W vs Umeå W — Elitettan 2021

Husqvarna W
Husqvarna W
Preview
11:00
Umeå W
Umeå W
8/8/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 13
55%
Umeå W
model favours
22%23%55%

Husqvarna W and Umeå W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Husqvarna W22%
×Draw23%
Umeå W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna W
1.03
Umeå W
1.79

Umeå W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 57 away

creates per match

Husqvarna W
0.80
Umeå W
2.18

allows per match

Husqvarna W
1.40
Umeå W
1.26

finishing

Husqvarna W+0.00on par
Umeå W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna W ↓

Umeå W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Husqvarna W or draw
45%
Husqvarna W or Umeå W
77%
Draw or Umeå W
78%

Winning margin

Husqvarna W wins by 2+
8%
Umeå W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Husqvarna W 1+ goals
64%
Husqvarna W 2+ goals
28%
Husqvarna W 3+ goals
9%
Umeå W 1+ goals
83%
Umeå W 2+ goals
53%
Umeå W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna W (draw refunded)
28%
Umeå W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Umeå W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna W attack 0.80 + Umeå W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Umeå W attack 2.18 + Husqvarna W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Husqvarna W scores more
22%
level
23%
Umeå W scores more
55%

Umeå W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DWLLW
W
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Husqvarna W vs Umeå W — Match Preview

Husqvarna W face Umeå W on August 8, 2026 in this Elitettan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.