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Hürth vs VfL Vichttal — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
5/29/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 32Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Hürth36%
×Draw23%
VfL Vichttal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.58
VfL Vichttal
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 79 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
VfL Vichttal
1.92

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
VfL Vichttal
1.78

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

VfL Vichttal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
59%
Hürth or VfL Vichttal
77%
Draw or VfL Vichttal
64%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
18%
VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
79%
Hürth 2+ goals
47%
Hürth 3+ goals
21%
VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
82%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
50%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
47%
VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hürth scores more
36%
level
23%
VfL Vichttal scores more
41%

VfL Vichttal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hürth 2–1 VfL Vichttal

Hürth beat VfL Vichttal 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.