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Hürth vs Siegburger SV — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
0 – 2
Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
9/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Hürth34%
×Draw24%
Siegburger SV42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.47
Siegburger SV
1.66

Siegburger SV creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Siegburger SV
1.86

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Siegburger SV
1.57

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Siegburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
58%
Hürth or Siegburger SV
76%
Draw or Siegburger SV
66%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
16%
Siegburger SV wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
77%
Hürth 2+ goals
43%
Hürth 3+ goals
18%
Siegburger SV 1+ goals
81%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
49%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
45%
Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hürth scores more
34%
level
24%
Siegburger SV scores more
42%

Siegburger SV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hürth 0–2 Siegburger SV

Siegburger SV beat Hürth 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.